Boehner Strikes Conciliatory Tone in Talk of Fiscal Cliff


Jonathan Ernst for The New York Times


House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio left the podium after delivering remarks at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday.







The House speaker, John A. Boehner of Ohio, striking a conciliatory tone a day after the Republican Party’s electoral drubbing, said on Wednesday that he was ready to accept a budget deal that raises federal revenue as long as it is linked to an overhaul of entitlements and a reform of the tax code that closes loopholes, curtails or eliminates deductions and lowers income tax rates.




Mr. Boehner’s gesture was the most explicit offer he has made to avert the “fiscal cliff” in January, when billions of dollars in tax increases and automatic spending cuts go into force. And it came hours after Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, offered his own olive branch, saying “it’s better to dance than to fight.”


“Mr. President, this is your moment,” Mr. Boehner told reporters in the Capitol. “We’re ready to lead, not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans.”


The offer may be enough to bring the parties to the table in the wake of an election that kept President Obama in power, strengthened the Democrats’ grip on the Senate and chipped away at the still-large Republican majority in the House.


But Democrats and Republicans are still far apart. Mr. Boehner made it clear that his vision for additional revenue includes a tax code that lowers even the top income tax rate from where it is now, 35 percent, not where it would be in January when the Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire — 39.6 percent. At least some of that additional revenue would come from economic growth that he said would be fueled by a simpler tax code.


Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the third-ranking Democrat, has said those constructs are unacceptable. Democratic leaders say tax reform that lowers tax rates across the board would either hurt the middle class by trimming vital tax benefits like the home mortgage deduction or would not raise enough taxes to meaningfully reduce the deficit. Mr. Reid underscored Mr. Obama’s contention that tax rates on the rich must rise, saying “the vast majority of Americans” support that, “including rich people.”


But in language and timing, the leaders of Congress’s two chambers left the unmistakable impression that they want a deal at least large enough to avert the worst economic impacts of a sudden rise in income, payroll, capital gains, dividend, interest and estate tax rates that would affect virtually every American family, working or not. Mr. Boehner has said for months that a deal to reform taxes and entitlements and substantially lower the deficit is not appropriate for a lame-duck Congress.


But facing a Congress next year that will be less Republican than the current one, he suggested on Wednesday that he would favor a deal that would serve at least as “a down payment on — and a catalyst for — major solutions, enacted in 2013.”


He said he had spoken to the president on Wednesday before making his statement to reporters.


“I’m not suggesting we compromise on our principles,” he said, “but I am suggesting we commit ourselves to creating an atmosphere where we can see common ground when it exists and seize it.”


Mr. Obama enters the next fray with heightened leverage, both sides agree, especially on what he sees as the most immediate issue: Whether Republicans will relent and extend the Bush-era income tax cuts, which expire Dec. 31, except for households with taxable income above $250,000 a year.


Yet if Mr. Obama received a mandate for nothing else after a campaign in which he was vague on second-term prescriptions, he can and will claim one for the proposition that the wealthiest Americans like himself and Mitt Romney should pay higher income taxes. That stance was a staple of Mr. Obama’s campaign stump speeches for more than a year. And in surveys of those leaving the polls on Tuesday, voters overwhelmingly agreed with him.


“This election tells us a lot about the political wisdom of defending tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of everything else,” a senior administration official said early on Wednesday.


In his victory speech, Mr. Obama offered what the White House intended as an early olive branch. “In the coming weeks and months,” he said, “I am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together: reducing our deficit, reforming our tax code, fixing our immigration system, freeing ourselves from foreign oil.”


Much pre-election speculation held that a result like what occurred — essentially maintaining the status quo with Mr. Obama in the White House; Democrats in control of the Senate, though now with an unexpectedly padded majority; and Republicans still leading the House — would make for continued gridlock and a fall off the fiscal cliff at some cost to the recovery.


Yet there are counter views. For one thing, had Mitt Romney won, the rough consensus in both parties was that he and Congress would have delayed the scheduled imposition of automatic tax increases and spending cuts for at least six months and up to a year to give Mr. Romney time to staff his administration and outline a plan. And that delay would have been compounded by an all but certain standoff between a new president dedicated to cutting taxes deeply, not raising them, and Democrats in Congress intent on getting tax increases on high incomes in exchange for their assent to future reductions in Medicare and Medicaid.


Also, as the administration and a few other optimists in both parties see it, with the same division of power, the two sides can immediately take up where they left off in 2011. That year, repeated efforts for a bipartisan budget deal ultimately collapsed on the tax issue and on Democrats’ refusal to consider reductions in the fast-growing entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid unless Republicans compromised.


John H. Cushman Jr. contributed reporting from Washington.



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Apple slides to five-month low, uncertainty grows

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Read More..

Mom of 'Modern Family' teen star accused of abuse

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The mother of "Modern Family" star Ariel Winter has temporarily lost custody of the actress amid allegations she's been abusive to the teenager.

Court records claim Winter's mother, Chrisoula Workman, has been physically and emotionally abusive to her 14-year-old daughter, who plays Alex Dunphy on the hit ABC comedy.

The October order, first reported Wednesday by celebrity website TMZ, requires Workman to stay away from Winter until a Nov. 20 hearing. Records show Winter's sister filed for guardianship and was appointed her temporary guardian, but will not have access to her earnings.

The records describe Workman's abuse as consisting of slapping and name-calling.

Reached by phone, Workman said she was in the process of hiring an attorney.

Winter has appeared in films and TV shows since she was 7.

Read More..

A Collective Effort to Save Decades of Research at N.Y.U.





The calls started coming in late on Tuesday and early Wednesday: offers of dry ice, freezer space, coolers. By the end of Thursday there were dozens more: A researcher at Weill Cornell Medical College would clear 1,000 tanks to save threatened zebra fish; another, at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, promised to replace some genetically altered mice that were lost; and a doctor at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia even offered take over entire experiments, to keep them going.




As hurricane-driven waters surged into New York University research buildings in Kips Bay, on the East Side of Manhattan, investigators in New York and around the world jumped on the phone to offer assistance — executing a reverse Noah’s ark operation, to rescue lab animals and other assets from a flooding vessel.


“I’ve had 43 people who have offered to help so far, and some of them are direct competitors,” said Gordon Fishell, associate director of the N.Y.U. Neuroscience Institute, who lost more than 5,000 genetically altered mice when storm waters surged the night of Oct. 30, cutting off power. “It’s just been unbelievable,” he said. “It really buoys my spirits and my lab’s.”


Staff members at N.Y.U. worked around the clock to preserve research materials, running in and out of darkened buildings without elevator service, hauling dry ice and other supplies up anywhere from 2 to more than 15 floors.


The university’s medical center also got instant help, from almost every major research institution in the area.


The response reflects large shifts in the way that science is conducted over the past generation or so. Individual labs always compete to be first, but researchers increasingly share materials that are enormously expensive and time-consuming to reproduce. The loss of a single cell line or genetically altered animal can slow progress for years in some areas of biomedical research.


“We are totally dependent on each other in the life sciences now, for a very large number of cell lines and extracts, research animals and unique chemical tools and antibodies that might not have backup copies anywhere in the world, or in very few places,” said Dr. Steven Hyman, director of the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard. “Losing any of these tools tears a significant hole in the entire field.”


Danny Reinberg, a professor of biochemistry at N.Y.U.’s medical school, has studied genetics for 30 years, accumulating valuable mice strains and stocks of extracts from cell nuclei that would be extremely difficult to replace. The extracts must be stored at minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit.


Dr. Reinberg said he lost all of his mice: nine strains, including more than 1,000 animals that died in the storm surge. But he managed to save all of the cell extracts by moving some containers into freezers at N.Y.U. labs that weren’t affected and others to the Rockefeller, Columbia and Cornell medical centers, each of which cleared space, he said.


“We were able to save many things; it was just phenomenal to get that kind of help,” said Dr. Reinberg, whose house in New Jersey has had no power.


“Later in the week, at a Starbucks, I could finally download all my e-mail, and there were messages from people at the University of Pennsylvania and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, asking how they could help us re-establish the mouse lines we lost,” he said.


Some scientists have become interdependent because their students, who develop a specialty in specific tissues or animals, often move among labs. Research projects sometimes draw on experiments or analyses the students worked on at more than one place.


One researcher working in Dr. Fishell’s lab was formerly a student of Dr. Stewart Anderson of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, who sent Dr. Fishell a text message on Wednesday to offer help. “I told him that even if it costs money, we’re happy to keep experiments rolling, if we’re able to,” Dr. Anderson said.


By late Thursday, freezer space in minus-112-degree units was extremely tight in the city. So was dry ice.


Susan Zolla-Pazner, director of AIDS research at the Manhattan Veterans Affairs Medical Center, had lost power in her 18th-floor lab in the department’s building at 23rd Street and First Avenue. She finally hired a company to haul her 20 freezers-full of specimens, for safekeeping.


“We spent all of Tuesday and Wednesday hauling 1,300 pounds of dry ice up to the 18th floor, using the stairs, to stabilize the freezers first,” said Dr. Zolla-Pazner, who is also a professor of pathology at N.Y.U. School of Medicine. “And the dry ice people would only take cash. I have about 25 to 30 people working for me, and everyone was out there on 23rd Street, reaching into their pockets to get what we needed. It was a herculean and heroic effort on the part of everyone here, and that is the story that needs to be told.”


Read More..

Investors on Wall St. React Nervously


Henny Ray Abrams/Associated Press


A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. A day after the election, the outlook of continued divided government in Washington and little prospect for compromise unnerved traders.







A one-two punch of worries about the post-election picture in the United States and economic weakness in Europe sent stocks reeling Wednesday, with major indices falling more than 2 percent. Some industry sectors, like finance and managed care, fell substantially more than that over fears they would be hurt by tougher regulations and other adverse policies in President Obama’s second term.




The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index recorded its worst performance since June, falling 33.86 to 1,394.53, while the Dow Jones industrial average fell 312.95 to 12,932.73. It was the Dow’s first close below the psychologically important 13,000 level since August.


Shares also came under pressure after Barclays sharply reduced its year-end target for the S.&P. 500 to 1,325 from 1,395 — 5 percent below where the broad-based index closed Wednesday.


“Within the equity market in the near term, we believe there will be nowhere to hide,” said Barry Knapp, chief United States equity strategist at Barclays. “In the near term, we generally suggest cutting risk.”


Many market strategists expect that the market will remain volatile between now and mid-January. If Congress and the president cannot come up with a plan to cut the deficit, hundreds of billions in Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire at the beginning of 2013 while automatic spending cuts will sharply cut the defense budget and other programs.


Known as the fiscal cliff, this simultaneous combination of sweeping reductions in government spending and tax increases could push the economy into recession in 2013, economists fear.


In the wake of President Obama’s re-election, companies in some sectors, like hospitals and technology, will see a short-term pop, said Tobias Levkovich, chief United States equity strategist with Citi. Other areas, like financial services as well as coal and mining, are likely to be hurt, Mr. Levkovich said.


Indeed, coal companies were among the worst hit Wednesday. The coal industry is particularly sensitive to new environmental regulations, while Mr. Obama has pushed in the past for more investments in renewables and alternative energy sources that could reduce coal demand in the long-term.


Shares of Alpha Natural Resources, a coal giant, were down 12.2 percent to $8.45, while Arch Coal was off 12.5 percent to $7.58.


But HCA Holdings, a hospital operator, jumped 9.4 percent, to $33.85 a share. As a result of Mr. Obama’s victory, Goldman Sachs said it upgraded its rating on HCA to buy from neutral, and raised its price target to $39 from $31. It also raised price targets for Tenet Healthcare and Community Health Systems, although both are still rated neutral.


Goldman downgraded shares of Humana, a leading managed care company, to sell, and its shares fell 7.9 percent to $70.16. Goldman warned that Humana and other managed care providers could be hurt as health care reform moves forward, especially new rules for health insurers that become effective in 2014.


Shares of Wall Street firms and big banks were also hard hit. While Mitt Romney favored substantially altering the Dodd-Frank financial regulations passed in the summer of 2010 and easing many regulations, President Obama has supported stricter rules for the financial services industry. In addition, one of the industry’s fiercest critics, Elizabeth Warren, was elected to the Senate from Massachusetts, unseating her Republican opponent, Scott Brown.


Bank of America fell 7.1 percent to $9.23 while Goldman Sachs dropped 6.6 percent to $117.98 and JPMorgan Chase sank 5.6 percent to $40.48.


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Presidential Campaign Over, Voters Take to the Polls


Luke Sharrett for The New York Times


Ryan Salke, center, a cadet at the Citadel, made phone calls for Mitt Romney at a field office in Virginia Beach. More Photos »







The polls closed in Ohio, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire on Tuesday night, wrapping up the voting in the first of the battleground states that will help decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term or is replaced by Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.




Some results became clear in states where there was somewhat less suspense: Mr. Romney was projected by The Associated Press to win Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina and Indiana, while Mr. Obama was projected to win Vermont.


The early results marked the beginning of the end of a long, hard-fought campaign that centered on who would better heal the battered economy and on what role government should play in the 21st century. It was a race in which the candidates, parties and well-heeled outside groups were on pace to spend some $2.6 billion.


There were long lines to vote in many states. In Florida, where Republican officials cut back the number of days of early voting, there were waits of more than four hours at some polling places. There were also waits of up to four hours in Prince William County, Va., election officials said.


Mr. Romney, a Republican, cast his vote Tuesday morning near his home in Belmont, Mass. When a reporter asked him for whom he had voted, Mr. Romney replied, “I think you know.” Mr. Obama voted Oct. 25 in Chicago, becoming one of more than 31 million people who voted early this year.


Early exit poll results found, unsurprisingly, that the No. 1 issue on the minds of voters was the economy. While three-quarters of voters rated the national economy as not so good or poor, only 3 in 10 said it was getting worse, while 4 in 10 said it was getting better. Half of voters said that President George W. Bush was more to blame for the nation’s current economic problems, while 4 in 10 said that Mr. Obama was.


Voters gave a narrow edge to Mr. Romney when asked which candidate would better handle the economy.


But the exit polls found that Mr. Obama had an edge on empathy, with somewhat more voters saying he was more in touch with people like them. A plurality of voters said his policies generally favored the middle class, while more than half said Mr. Romney’s favored the rich.


The president visited a campaign office in Chicago on Tuesday morning, where he called and thanked several startled volunteers in Wisconsin and then spoke briefly to the reporters who were traveling with him, congratulating Mr. Romney for having run a “spirited campaign.”


“I also want to say to Governor Romney, congratulations on a spirited campaign,” Mr. Obama said. “I know that his supporters are just as engaged and just as enthusiastic and working just as hard today. We feel confident we’ve got the votes to win, that it’s going to depend ultimately on whether those votes turn out. And so I would encourage everybody on all sides just to make sure that you exercise this precious right that you have that people fought so hard for, for us to have.”


Both campaigns continued trying to grind out votes on Tuesday. Mr. Obama planned a round of satellite television interviews with local stations in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin. Mr. Romney planned campaign stops in Cleveland and Pittsburgh.


Considering the way both men have sometimes seemed to be campaigning for the presidency of Ohio — given the repeated stops they made there in their efforts to claim the state’s 18 electoral votes — it was perhaps unsurprising that the two campaigns should cross paths there on Election Day. Mr. Romney was waiting in his campaign plane in Cleveland on Tuesday morning for the arrival of his running mate, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, when another plane touched down and could be seen taxiing nearby. It was carrying Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.


If both campaigns could seem small at times, the issues confronting the nation remained big: how to continue to rebuild after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression; whether to put into place Mr. Obama’s health care law to cover the uninsured, or undo it; whether to reshape Medicare for future beneficiaries to try to curb its costs; whether to raise taxes to reduce the federal deficit or to rely on spending cuts alone; how to wind down the war in Afghanistan without opening the region to new dangers; and how to navigate the post-Arab Spring world.


A narrow majority of voters approved of the way Mr. Obama was handling his job as president, early exit poll results found. Slightly more voters said they trusted Mr. Obama more to handle an international crisis than they did Mr. Romney. A majority said Mr. Obama would better handle Medicare. But a narrow majority said Mr. Romney would better handle the deficit.



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Exclusive - Amazon to win EU e-book pricing tussle with Apple

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union regulators are to end an antitrust probe into e-book prices by accepting an offer by Apple and four publishers to ease price restrictions on Amazon, two sources said on Tuesday.


That decision would hand online retailer Amazon a victory in its attempt to sell e-books cheaper than rivals in the fast-growing market publishers hope will boost revenue and increase customer numbers.


"Faced with years of court battles and uncertainty I can understand why some of these guys decided to fold their cards and take the whipping," said Mark Coker, founder of Smashwords, an ebook publisher and distributor that works with Apple.


"It's certainly another win for Amazon," he added. "I have not seen the terms of the final settlement, but my initial reaction is that it places restrictions on what publishers can do, slowing them down just when they need to be more nimble."


A spokesman at the EU Commission said its investigation was not yet finished. Amazon and Apple declined to comment.


In September, Apple and the publishers offered to let retailers set prices or discounts for a period of two years, and also to suspend "most-favored nation" contracts for five years.


Such clauses bar Simon & Schuster, News Corp. unit HarperCollins, Lagardere SCA's Hachette Livre and Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck, the owner of German company Macmillan, from making deals with rival retailers to sell e-books more cheaply than Apple.


The agreements, which critics say prevent Amazon and other retailers from undercutting Apple's charges, sparked an investigation by the European Commission in December last year.


Pearson Plc's Penguin group, which is also under investigation, did not take part in the offer.


The EU antitrust authority, which in September asked for feedback from rivals and consumers about the proposal, has not asked for more concessions, said one of sources.


"The Commission is likely to accept the offer and announce its decision next month," the source said on Tuesday.


Antoine Colombani, spokesman for competition policy at the European Commission, said: "We have launched a market test in September and our investigation is still ongoing."


Amazon declined to comment, while Apple did not respond to an email seeking comment.


Companies found guilty of breaching EU rules could be fined up to 10 percent of their global sales, which in Apple's case could reach $15.6 billion, based on its 2012 fiscal year.


AGGREGATE PRICING


UBS analysts estimate that e-books account for about 30 percent of the U.S. book market and 20 percent of sales in Britain but are minuscule elsewhere. When Amazon launched its Kindle e-reader, it charged $9.99 per book.


Apple's agency model let publishers set prices in return for a 30 percent cut to the maker of iPhone and iPad.


The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating e-book prices. HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Hachette have settled, but Apple, Pengin Group and Macmillan have not.


The DOJ settlement required that retailers must at least break even selling all ebooks from a publisher's available list, according to Coker and Joe Wikert, general manager and publisher at O'Reilly Media Inc.


It was not clear if EU regulators will include a similar requirement, which would prohibit Amazon from pricing all ebooks at a loss, said Wikert, a former publishing executive.


In the United States, Amazon will likely price popular titles at a loss and try to make up the difference on a publisher's other ebooks, he said.


Coker said any such rule could be dangerous in Europe, which still has distinct markets.


"It could allow a single retailer to charge full price in a large market like the U.K., and then sell below cost or for free in multiple smaller markets as a strategy to kill regional ebook retailing upstarts before they take root," Coker said.


FROWNING ON ONLINE TRADE CURBS


Antitrust regulators tend to frown on restrictions on online trade and the case is a good example, said Mark Tricker, a partner at Brussels-based law firm Norton Rose.


"This case shows the online world continues to be a major focus for the Commission," he said.


"These markets change very quickly and if you don't stamp down on potential infringements of competition rules, you can have significant consequences."


(Additional reporting by Alistair Barr in San Francisco; Editing by Rex Merrifield, David Goodman and David Gregorio)


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Director John Singleton, Paramount settle lawsuit

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Director John Singleton and Paramount Pictures Corp. have settled a lawsuit over his claim that the studio broke an agreement to let him produce two films in exchange for the rights to distribute the Oscar-nominated movie "Hustle & Flow."

Court records show the deal was reached late Thursday in Los Angeles, just days before a trial was scheduled to begin.

Attorneys for Singleton and Paramount said the settlement terms are confidential, but the matter was amicably resolved.

Singleton produced "Hustle & Flow" and claimed he agreed to work with Paramount on distribution rights because of the opportunity to make two films for the studio.

A judge had previously ruled Singleton was not entitled to re-acquire rights to 2005's "Hustle & Flow," which earned a best actor nomination for Terrence Howard and won for best song.

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Global Update: Polio Eradication Efforts in Pakistan Focus on Pashtuns


Michael Kamber for The New York Times







Polio will never be eradicated in Pakistan until a way is found to persuade poor Pashtuns to embrace the vaccine, according to a study released by the World Health Organization.




A survey of 1,017 parents of young children found that 41 percent had never heard of polio and 11 percent refused to vaccinate their children against it. The survey was done in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city and the only big city in the world where polio persists; it was published in the agency’s November bulletin.


Parents from poor families “cited lack of permission from family elders,” said Dr. Anita Zaidi, who teaches pediatrics at the Aga Khan University in Karachi. Some rich parents also disdained the vaccine, saying it was “harmful or unnecessary,” she added.


Pashtuns account for 75 percent of Pakistan’s polio cases even though they are only 15 percent of the population. Wealthy children are safer because the virus travels in sewage, and their neighborhoods may have covered sewers and be less flood-prone.


Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in next-door Afghanistan, where polio has also never been wiped out. Most Taliban fighters are Pashtun, and some Taliban threatened to kill vaccinators earlier this year. Two W.H.O. vaccinators were shot in Karachi in July.


Rumors persist that the vaccine is a plot to sterilize Muslims. But the eradication drive is recruiting Pashtuns as vaccinators and asking prominent religious leaders from various sects to make videos endorsing the vaccine.


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Changing of the Guard: Facing Protests, China’s Business Investment May Be Cooling





SHIFANG, China — Local leaders were all smiles this summer at a groundbreaking ceremony for a vast copper smelting project that seemed like the answer to the chronic unemployment that has plagued this city in northern Sichuan ever since a devastating earthquake in 2008.







Reuters

A protest against plans to expand a petrochemical plant in Ningbo, China, last month. More investment projects are running into opposition from a growing Chinese middle class concerned about environmental damage.






Articles in this series are examining the implications for China and the rest of the world of the coming changes in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.






But within days, the tree-lined plaza at the heart of the city was packed with thousands of youths, protesting that the $1.6 billion factory would pose a pollution hazard. After two nights of street battles pitting youths against the riot police, city leaders canceled the smelter.


“The environment is more important” than new investments or jobs, said a young woman sitting, on a recent afternoon, at the cafe across the street from the plaza, now empty except for a clutch of retirees gathered under the clock tower.


China’s economic boom over the last three decades has depended overwhelmingly on a build-at-all-costs investment strategy in which pollution concerns, the preservation of neighborhoods and other such questions have been swept aside. But that approach is starting to backfire, posing one of the biggest challenges for the new generation of Chinese policy makers who will take over at the Communist Party Congress, which starts on Thursday.


New investment projects used to be seen as the best way to keep the Chinese public happy with jobs and rising incomes, assuring social stability — a paramount goal of the Communist Party — while frequently enriching local politicians as well.


But from Shifang in the west to the port of Ningbo in the east, where a week of sometimes violent protests forced the suspension on Oct. 28 of plans to expand a chemical plant, more projects are running into public hostility. In many cases, they are running into opposition not just from farmers who do not want their houses and fields confiscated, but also from a growing middle class fearful that new factories will lead to more environmental damage.


In response to this and other worries about the economy, a number of influential officials and business leaders in China have stepped up their calls for changes aimed at increasing the efficiency of investment and simultaneously shifting the country toward a greater reliance on consumption.


But China’s leaders, including the outgoing prime minister, Wen Jiabao, have been talking about such a transformation for years with little sign of success, as state-controlled banks continue to lend huge sums to politically powerful state-owned enterprises and local governments.


Frenzied construction of roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines over the last decade has left China with world-class infrastructure. But it has also produced deeply indebted local governments that are struggling to finance more projects.


At the same time, vast unused capacity in practically every industrial sector has crippled profitability and left manufacturing firms straining to repay their borrowings, a problem that has been partly masked by banks in the habit of simply rolling over loans rather than recognizing losses.


“All Chinese industries are like that — can you dig out which area of Chinese industry is not in overcapacity?” said Li Junfeng, a longtime director general for energy at China’s top economic planning agency.


Investment reached 46 percent of China’s economic output last year. By comparison, Japan’s investment rate peaked at 36 percent, which it reached in the early 1970s; South Korea topped out at 39 percent in the late 1980s.


Growth in Japan and South Korea started to slow and eventually tumbled after investment peaked. The big question now is when China will run into the same limits, and how rapidly change will take place, said Diana Choyleva, an economist at Lombard Street Research in Hong Kong. “The potential for a big crisis is always there,” she said.


Even experts who strongly favor fundamental policy changes, like moving to a more market-oriented system for allocating bank loans and setting interest rates, doubt that China’s leaders are preparing to move quickly. Conversations at senior levels of the Communist Party appear to have focused so far on reducing the state’s role in the day-to-day management of many state-owned enterprises rather than selling them or breaking them up.


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