High Hay Prices Encourage More Thefts From Farms

Matthew Staver for The New York Times

Conrad Swanson has had bales of hay stolen from his field in Wellington, Colo.

DENVER _ Across the heartland, ranchers, farmers and county sheriffs are grappling with a new scourge: hay rustling.

Months of punishing drought and grass fires have pushed the price of hay, grain and other animal feed to near records, making the golden bales an increasingly irresistible target for thieves. Some steal them for profit. Others are fellow farmers acting out of desperation, their fields too brown to graze animals and their finances too wrecked to afford enough feed for their cattle.

“It’s the economics of the times,” said Jack McGrath, the undersheriff in Colorado’s Weld County, where hay thefts rose to 15 last year from 7 in 2011.

At Mark Reifenrath’s farm in northern Colorado, the thieves struck at night. Two men driving a stolen pickup opened an unguarded farm gate by the side of the road, rolled into Mr. Reifenrath’s alfalfa field and headed toward their quarry: 800-pound square bundles of freshly cut hay.

They set to work that October night, hefting two bales onto a flatbed trailer. They might have gotten more, but an employee happened by and noticed flashlight beams bouncing around in the darkness. Something was up. He yelled out, and the men disappeared into a patch of cattails, leaving behind a half-loaded trailer.

“Maybe it’s not the crime of the century, but it affects us,” Mr. Reifenrath said.

Sheriffs in rural counties in Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas say the spike in hay thefts is part of a broader rise in agricultural crime.

California’s farmers have grappled recently with growing thefts of grapes, beehives and avocados, and sheriffs say high prices of scrap metal have made agricultural machinery — whether it works or not — an appealing target. Dubious online merchants are selling feed to farmers but never delivering. On the range, wire fences are being clipped to allow interloping herds to poach grazing land.

Most thieves make off with less than a ton of hay — about $200 to $300 worth, depending on the quality. But on Labor Day in Wellington, Colo., thieves hot-wired a front-end loader and stole enough hay from Conrad T. Swanson’s ranch to fill the flatbed trailer of a semi.

“It’s not like someone was just driving by and took enough to feed a horse,” Mr. Swanson said.

Law enforcement officials said they could do little to prevent the thefts or catch the culprits. Most of the hay is nipped at night along remote roads, from fields and barns hundreds of yards from the nearest home. Because one bundle of hay tends to look like every other one, once a bale is stolen, reclaiming it is harder than finding a needle in a — well, never mind.

To ward off the hay thieves, farmers are padlocking their gates and painting their bales with their brands. Some are splicing their hay with ribbons that mark their ownership.

In Tillman County, Okla., hay thefts became so rampant that Sheriff Bobby Whittington decided to lay a trap. He bugged a bale in a particularly theft-prone field with a GPS unit and set to waiting, sure that thieves would strike. Sure enough, his phone rang one night last March with the news that the tracking device was on the move.

The sheriff hopped into his car and headed toward the signal. When he reached it, he found his culprits, and the bugged bale. Pulling them over, he said, he told the driver, “We need to talk about that hay bale you’ve got there.”

The men were belligerent at first, Mr. Whittington said, until he explained how he had tracked them down. Before being arrested, the driver offered a plea.

“He just hung his old head and said, ‘Can I take it back?’” Mr. Whittington said. “And I said, ‘No.’”

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Go Ahead, Keep Being Mean to Celebrities on Twitter

We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:  

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We usually don’t condone being an impolite jerk to anyone, especially on social media. But we kind of make an exception because, well, if everyone was nice to everyone all of a sudden, we’d run out of fun Jimmy Kimmel segments where celebrities read their tweets:

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Oh man, this giant squid is like the most famous sea creature celebrity of the moment. And yes, it’s way freakier in motion:

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So fine, this is sort of bending the rules per se because this isn’t really a video-video. It’s the Game of Thrones introduction with beatboxing by the Stark children. 

And finally, here is one minute of a man singing all the songs involving the word “baby.” And in case you were wondering, yes, Justin Bieber is officially in the Baby Pantheon of Music. 

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Adele to make post-baby debut at Golden Globes

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. (AP) — Adele is coming to the Golden Globes.

The executive producer of the show says the 24-year-old Grammy-winning pop star is set to make her first post-baby appearance at Sunday's ceremony, where she is nominated for original song for the James Bond theme "Skyfall."

Adele welcomed her first child, with boyfriend Simon Konecki, in October. The singer has kept a low profile since announcing her pregnancy in June after sweeping the Grammy Awards last February with six wins.

Her single, "Skyfall," will compete at the Golden Globes with Taylor Swift's song from "The Hunger Games," Jon Bon Jovi's number from "Stand Up Guys," Keith Urban's track from "Act of Valor," and "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables."

The Globes will be presented Sunday at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

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Pap Test May Prove Useful at Detecting More Types of Cancer, Study Suggests

The Pap test, which has prevented countless deaths from cervical cancer, may eventually help to detect cancers of the uterus and ovaries as well, a new study suggests.

For the first time, researchers have found genetic material from uterine or ovarian cancers in Pap smears, meaning that it may become possible to detect three diseases with just one routine test.

But the research is early, years away from being used in medical practice, and there are caveats. The women studied were already known to have cancer, and while the Pap test found 100 percent of the uterine cancers, it detected only 41 percent of the ovarian cancers. And the approach has not yet been tried in women who appear healthy, to determine whether it can find early signs of uterine or ovarian cancer.

On the other hand, even a 41 percent detection rate would be better than the status quo in ovarian cancer, particularly if the detection extends to early stages. The disease is usually advanced by the time it is found, and survival rates are poor. About 22,280 new cases were expected in the United States in 2012, and 15,500 deaths. Improved tests are urgently needed.

Uterine cancer has a better prognosis, but still kills around 8,000 women a year in the United States.

These innovative applications of the Pap test are part of a new era in which advances in genetics are being applied to the detection of a wide variety of cancers or precancerous conditions. Scientists are learning to find minute bits of mutant DNA in tissue samples or bodily fluids that may signal the presence of hidden or incipient cancers.

Ideally, the new techniques would find the abnormalities early enough to cure the disease or even prevent it entirely. But it is too soon to tell.

“Is this the harbinger of things to come? I would answer yes,” said Dr. Bert Vogelstein, director of the Ludwig Center for Cancer Genetics and Therapeutics at Johns Hopkins University, and a senior author of a report on the Pap test study published on Wednesday in the journal Science Translational Medicine. He said the genomes of more than 50 types of tumors had been sequenced, and researchers were trying to take advantage of the information.

Similar studies are under way or are being considered to look for mutant DNA in blood, stool, urine and sputum, both to detect cancer and also to monitor the response to treatment in people known to have the disease.

But researchers warn that such tests, used for screening, can be a double-edged sword if they give false positive results that send patients down a rabbit hole of invasive tests and needless treatments. Even a test that finds only real cancers may be unable to tell aggressive, dangerous ones apart from indolent ones that might never do any harm, leaving patients to decide whether to watch and wait or to go through surgery, chemotherapy and radiation with all the associated risks and side effects.

“Will they start recovering mutations that are not cancer-related?” asked Dr. Christopher P. Crum, a professor at Harvard Medical School who was not involved in the research.

But he also called the study a “great proof of principle,” and said, “Any whisper of hope to women who suffer from endometrial or ovarian cancer would be most welcome.”

DNA testing is already performed on samples from Pap tests, to look for the human papillomavirus, or HPV, which causes cervical cancer. Dr. Vogelstein and his team decided to try DNA testing for cancer. They theorized that cells or DNA shed from cancers of the ovaries and the uterine lining, or endometrium, might reach the cervix and turn up in Pap smears.

The team picked common mutations found in these cancers, and looked for them in tumor samples from 24 women with endometrial cancer and 22 with ovarian cancer. All the cancers had one or more of the common mutations.

Then, the researchers performed Pap tests on the same women, and looked for the same DNA mutations in the Pap specimens. They found the mutations in 100 percent of the women with endometrial cancer, but in only 9 of the 22 with ovarian cancer. The test identified two of the four ovarian cancers that had been diagnosed at an early stage.

Finally, the team developed a test that would look simultaneously for cancer-associated mutations in 12 different genes in Pap samples. Used in a control sample of 14 healthy women, the test found no mutations — meaning no false-positive results.

Dr. Luis A. Diaz, the other senior author of the report and an associate professor of oncology at Johns Hopkins, called the research a step toward a screening test that at first blush appears very effective at detecting endometrial cancer, though obviously less so at finding ovarian cancer.

“Probably one of the most exciting features of this approach,” Dr. Diaz said, “is that we wanted a test that would seamlessly integrate with routine medical practice that could be utilized with the same test that women get every day all over the world, the Pap smear.”

But, he added: “We can’t say it’s ready for prime time. Like all good science, it needs to be validated.”

He and other members of the team said it might be possible to improve the detection rate for ovarian cancer by looking for more mutations and by changing the technique of performing Pap tests to increase the likelihood of capturing cells from the ovary. The change might involve timing the test to a certain point in a woman’s monthly cycle, using a longer brush to collect cells from deeper within the cervix or prescribing a drug that would raise the odds of cells being shed from the ovary.

The technique also needs to be tested in much larger groups of women, including healthy ones, to find out whether it works, particularly at finding cancers early enough to improve survival. And studies must also find out whether it generates false positive results, or identifies cancers that might not actually need to be treated.

Michael H. Melner, a program director in molecular genetics and biochemistry for the American Cancer Society, called the research “very promising,” in part because it is based on finding mutations.

“It tells you not just that cancer is there, but which mutation is there,” Dr. Melner said. “As we learn more and more about which mutations are associated with more or less severe forms of cancer, it’s more information, and possibly more diagnostic.”

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James M. Buchanan, Economic Scholar, Dies at 93

James M. Buchanan, a scholar and author whose analyses of economic and political decision-making won the 1986 Nobel in economic sciences and shaped a generation of conservative thinking about deficits, taxes and the size of government, died on Wednesday in Blacksburg, Va. He was 93.

Alex Tabarrok, the director of the Center for Study of Public Choice at George Mason University, which Mr. Buchanan founded, confirmed his death.

Dr. Buchanan, a professor emeritus at George Mason, in Fairfax, Va., was a leading proponent of public choice theory, which assumes that politicians and government officials, like everyone else, are motivated by self-interest — getting re-elected or gaining more power — and do not necessarily act in the public interest.

He argued that their actions could be analyzed, and even predicted, by applying the tools of economics to political science in ways that yield insights into the tendencies of governments to grow, increase spending, borrow money, run large deficits and let regulations proliferate.

The logic of self-interest was nothing new. Machiavelli’s 16th-century treatise “The Prince” detailed cynical rules of statecraft to extend political power. Thomas Hobbes, in his 17th-century book “Leviathan,” held that aggressive, self-serving acts were “natural” unless forbidden by law. Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations,” published in 1776, noted that people pursuing their own good also produced benefits for society at large.

But Dr. Buchanan contended that the pursuit of self-interest by modern politicians often led to harmful public results. Courting voters at election time, for example, legislators will approve tax cuts and spending increases for projects and entitlements favored by the electorate. This combination can lead to ever-rising deficits, public debt burdens and increasingly large governments to conduct the public’s business.

Indeed, he said, governments had grown so vast and complex that it was no longer possible for elected officials to make more than a fraction of the policy decisions that genuinely affect the people. Thus, he said, much discretionary power is actually held by civil functionaries who can manipulate priorities, impose barriers to entitlements and pressure legislators for rules and budgets favorable to their own interests.

Dr. Buchanan did not invent the theory of public choice, an idea whose origins are obscure but that arose in modern economics literature in the late 1940s. But from the 1950s onward, he became its leading proponent, spearheading a group of economists in Virginia that sought to change the nature of the political process, to bring it more into line with what the group considered the wishes of most Americans.

In lectures, articles and more than 30 books, Dr. Buchanan amplified on the theory of public choice and argued for smaller government, lower deficits and fewer regulations — a spectrum of policy objectives that were ascendant in the 1980s conservative agenda of President Ronald Reagan.

Over the years since Dr. Buchanan won the Nobel, much of what he predicted has played out. Government is bigger than ever. Tax revenue has fallen far short of public programs’ needs. Public and private borrowing has become a way of life. Politicians still act in their own interests while espousing the public good, and national deficits have soared into the trillions.

Dr. Buchanan partly blamed Keynesian economics for what he considered a decline in America’s fiscal discipline. John Maynard Keynes argued that budget deficits were not only unavoidable but in fiscal emergencies were even desirable as a means to increase spending, create jobs and cut unemployment. But that reasoning allowed politicians to rationalize deficits under many circumstances and over long periods, Dr. Buchanan contended.

In a commentary in The New York Times in March 2011, Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason, said his colleague Dr. Buchanan had accurately forecast that deficit spending for short-term gains would evolve into “a permanent disconnect” between government outlays and revenue.

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Under Obama, a Skew Toward Male Appointees

Pete Souza/The White House

President Obama met with senior advisers in the Oval Office to discuss the fiscal cliff negotiations in late December.

WASHINGTON — In an Oval Office meeting on Dec. 29, President Obama’s top advisers stood before him discussing the heated fiscal negotiations. A White House photo shows 10 of the aides. All are male.

In the days since, Mr. Obama has put together a national security team dominated by men, with Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts nominated to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton as the secretary of state, Chuck Hagel chosen to be the defense secretary and John O. Brennan nominated as the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Given the leading contenders for other top jobs, including chief of staff and Treasury secretary, Mr. Obama’s second-term inner circle appears likely to be dominated by men.

From the White House down the ranks, the Obama administration has compiled a broad appointment record that has significantly exceeded the Bush administration’s in terms of appointing women but has done no better than the Clinton administration’s, according to an analysis of personnel data by The New York Times. About 43 percent of Mr. Obama’s appointees have been women, about the same proportion as in the Clinton administration, but up from the roughly one-third appointed by George W. Bush.

The skew was widespread: male appointees under Mr. Obama outnumbered female appointees at 11 of the 15 federal departments, for instance. It occurred at all levels of government service, from the highest-level advisers on down. In some cases, the skew was also deep. At the Departments of Justice, Defense, Veterans Affairs and Energy, male appointees outnumbered female appointees by about two to one.

“We’re not only getting better than previous administrations, but we also want to get better ourselves as well,” Nancy D. Hogan, assistant to the president and director of presidential personnel, said in response to the Times analysis. “The president puts a premium on making his team representative of the American people.”

The White House itself employs almost exactly the same number of men and women, and administration officials said they hoped to even out the ratio across the government and help ensure that future Democratic administrations have a diverse and deep bench of candidates for high-level jobs. Mr. Obama does have a number of women in his closest circle of advisers, including Valerie A. Jarrett, a senior adviser, and Mrs. Clinton. But in the White House, there are 6 women with top-rank salaries, compared with 14 men, according to a 2012 report to Congress.

Interviews with current and former members of the administration, both men and women, suggested that there was no single reason for the discrepancy, and several repeatedly spoke of the administration’s internal commitment to diversity and gender equity.

But several said that the “pipeline” of candidates appeared to be one problem. They said it seemed that more men than women were put forward or put their names forward for jobs. In part, that might be a result of the persistence of historical discrepancies: men have traditionally dominated fields of government service like finance, security and defense.

The Obama administration has helped reverse that trend by putting women in top policy-making jobs in traditionally male-dominated fields, officials said. “It makes a huge difference when you have women who are leaders,” said Celeste A. Wallander, who until July served as a deputy assistant defense secretary. “They tend to have networks of excellent women they can call on. It’s who knows whom, who worked with whom. You tend to have a palette of options, and you chose from whom you know. Those can also be gender-skewed.”

In many areas of government, the Obama administration has brought the gender ratio much closer to even than the Bush administration. At the Treasury Department, which has a longstanding reputation as a boys’ club, men made up about 57 percent of appointees, down from 64 percent during the Bush administration as of 2008 and 60 percent in the Clinton administration as of 2000. Moreover, women now hold some of the top policy-making jobs in the Treasury Department, including Lael Brainard, the country’s top financial diplomat, and Mary J. Miller, the under secretary for domestic finance.

Kitty Bennett, Derek Willis and Sarah Cohen contributed research.

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James Franco Does His Best Justin Bieber

We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:  

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Remember when Justin Bieber was struggling for relevance and James Franco was the super serious, super educated actor destined for greatness? Well, Franco clearly doesn’t want you to:

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So what do you do when someone gets their dream wedding ruined by a doomed hot-air balloon ride? Well, if you’re the Today show, you make a macabre Wedding Crashers joke: 

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Here’s perhaps one of the better arguments against that trillion-dollar coin, courtesy of Homer Simpson and company:

And this guy seems pretty down on the squandered opulence of cruise ships:

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Bill Taylor to be awarded John A. Bonner Medal

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Visual effects supervisor Bill Taylor is being honored by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

The academy says Taylor will be awarded the John A. Bonner Medal of Commendation at the Scientific and Technical Awards banquet Feb. 9 at the Beverly Hills Hotel.

The John A. Bonner Medal is named in honor of the late director of special projects at Warner Hollywood Studios. It's awarded for outstanding service and dedication in upholding the high standards of the motion picture academy.

Taylor's visual effects credits include such films as "Lawless," ''Public Enemies," ''Milk" and "Bruce Almighty."

Portions of the Scientific and Technical Awards presentations will be included in the Academy Awards broadcast on Feb. 24.

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Gaps Seen in Therapy for Suicidal Teenagers

Most adolescents who plan or attempt suicide have already gotten at least some mental health treatment, raising questions about the effectiveness of current approaches to helping troubled teenagers, according to the largest in-depth analysis to date of suicidal behaviors in American teenagers.

The study in the journal JAMA Psychiatry found that 55 percent of suicidal teenagers had received some therapy before they thought about suicide, planned it or tried to kill themselves, contradicting the widely held belief that suicide is due in part to a lack of access to treatment.

The findings, based on interviews with a nationwide sample of more than 6,000 teenagers and at least one parent of each, linked suicidal behavior to complex combinations of mood disorders like depression and behavior problems that include attention-deficit and eating disorders, as well as alcohol and drug abuse.

The study found that about one in eight teenagers had persistent suicidal thoughts at some point, and about a third of them had made a suicide attempt, usually within a year of having the idea.

Previous studies have had similar findings, based on smaller, regional samples. But the new study is the first to suggest, in a large nationwide sample, that access to treatment does not make a big difference.

The study suggests that effective treatment for severely suicidal teenagers must address not just mood disorders, but also behavior problems that can lead to impulsive acts, experts said. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1,386 people between the ages of 13 and 18 committed suicide in 2010, the latest year for which numbers are available.

“I think one of the take-aways here is that treatment for depression may be necessary but not sufficient to prevent kids from attempting suicide,” said Dr. David Brent, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh, who was not involved in the study. “We simply do not have empirically validated treatments for recurrent suicidal behavior.”

The report said nothing about whether the therapies given were state of the art, or carefully done, said Matt Nock, a professor of psychology at Harvard and the lead author; and it is possible that some of the treatments prevented suicide attempts. “But it’s telling us we’ve got a long way to go to do this right,” Dr. Nock said. His co-authors included Ronald C. Kessler of Harvard, and researchers from Boston University and Children’s Hospital Boston.

Margaret McConnell, a consultant in Alexandria, Va., said that her daughter Alice, who killed herself in 2006, at the age of 17, was getting treatment at the time. “I think there might have been some carelessness in the way the treatment was done,” Ms. McConnell said, “and I was trusting a 17-year-old to manage her own medication; we found out after we lost her that she wasn’t taking it regularly.”

In the study, researchers surveyed 6,483 adolescents from the ages of 13 to 18 and found that 9 percent of male teenagers and 15 percent of female teenagers experienced some stretch of having persistent suicidal thoughts. Among girls, 5 percent made suicide plans and 6 percent made at least one attempt (some were unplanned).

Among boys, 3 percent made plans and 2 percent carried out attempts – which tended to be more lethal than girls’ attempts.

(Suicidal thinking or behavior was virtually unheard-of before age 10.)

Over all, about one-third of teenagers with persistent suicidal thoughts went on to make an attempt to take their own lives.

Almost all of the suicidal adolescents in the study qualified for some psychiatric diagnosis, whether depression, phobias, or generalized anxiety disorder. Those with an added behavior problem – attention-deficit disorder, substance abuse, explosive anger – were more likely to act on thoughts of self-harm, the study found.

Doctors have tested a range of therapies to prevent or reduce recurrent suicidal behaviors, with mixed success. Medications can ease depression, but in some cases can increase suicidal thinking. Talk therapy can contain some behavior problems, but not all.

One approach, called dialectical behavior therapy, has proved effective in reducing hospitalizations and attempts in people with so-called borderline personality disorder, who are highly prone to self-harm, among others.

But suicidal teenagers who have a mixture of mood and behavior issues are difficult to reach. In one 2011 study, researchers at George Mason University reduced suicide attempts, hospitalizations, drinking and drug use among suicidal adolescent substance abusers. The study found that a combination of intensive treatments – talk therapy for mood problems, family-based therapy for behavior issues and patient-led reduction in drug use – was more effective that regular therapies.

“But that’s just one study, and it’s small,” Dr. Brent said. “We can treat components of the overall problem, but that’s about all.”

Ms. McConnell said that her daughter’s depression seemed mild and that there was no warning that she would take her life. “I think therapy does help a lot of people, if it’s handled right,” she said.

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Shares Fall Again as Investors Remain Wary

Stocks fell Tuesday, retreating further from last week’s rally after the federal budget deal, as companies started to report quarterly results.

In the wake of a 4.3 percent increase in the two sessions around the close of the budget negotiations, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has fallen, with investors finding few catalysts to extend the rally that took the index to five-year highs.

“We had a brief respite, courtesy of what happened on the fiscal cliff deal and the flip of the calendar with new money coming into the market,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Ala.

Stock in AT&T fell 1.7 percent to $34.35, making it one of the biggest drags on the S.& P. 500, after the company said it sold more than 10 million smartphones in the quarter.

The figure beat the same quarter in 2011, but meant increased costs for AT&T. Wireless service providers like AT&T pay large subsidies to handset makers so that they can offer discounts to customers who commit to two-year contracts.

Fourth-quarter profits are expected to beat the previous quarter’s lackluster results, but analysts’ estimates are down sharply from October. Quarterly earnings are expected to grow by 2.7 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The Dow dropped 55.44 points, or 0.41 percent, to close at 13,328.85. The S.& P. 500 fell 4.74 points, or 0.32 percent, to 1,457.15. The Nasdaq composite index lost 7.01 points, or 0.23 percent, to 3,091.81.

“The stark reality of uncertainty with regard to earnings, plus the negotiations on the debt ceiling, are there, and that doesn’t give investors a lot of reason to take bets on the long side,” Mr. Hellwig said.

With AT&T’s fall, the S.& P. telecom services index was the worst performer of the 10 major S.& P. sectors, down 2.7 percent.

Stock in Sears Holdings fell 6.4 percent to $40.16 a day after the company said the chairman, Edward Lampert, would become chief executive after Louis D’Ambrosio steps down because of a relative’s health. Markets declined as some of the first earnings to be reported were weak.

The Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note rose 11/32, to 97 28/32, and the yield fell to 1.86 percent from 1.90 percent late Monday.

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